Utah Charges Prediction Market With Felony For Correctly Predicting Utah Would Do This
State prosecutors argue that being right about everything is, legally speaking, a form of witchcraft.
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SALT LAKE CITY — The state of Utah filed felony criminal charges Monday against prediction market platform Kalshi and its two top executives after the company's algorithm accurately forecast, to the minute, that Utah would file felony criminal charges against Kalshi and its two top executives. Authorities say the self-fulfilling nature of the prediction constitutes a "causality loop of malicious intent," which legal scholars describe as "not a real thing" but which Utah's Attorney General called "exactly the kind of thing a witch would say."
The charges, which carry a maximum sentence of twelve years and one strongly worded letter, stem from Kalshi's prediction market that opened in January titled "Will Utah Sue Us?" — which closed at 94% probability before authorities arrived at company headquarters with a warrant and, reportedly, a great deal of personal embarrassment. "They literally had a banner that said 'We Saw You Coming,'" said Deputy Prosecutor Hank Ferris, visibly shaken. "There was cake."
"We take the integrity of not being accurately predicted very seriously," said Utah Attorney General Sterling Polk at a press conference, during which Kalshi's live odds board behind him read "AG Will Say The Word 'Integrity': 97%." Polk then paused, looked at the board, and used the word "integrity" four more times in rapid succession before being escorted from the podium by an aide.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, reached for comment via a statement his legal team noted was "written three weeks ago in anticipation of this exact phone call," said the company stands firmly behind the First Amendment right to be correct. Legal analysts say the case raises profound questions about free speech, market regulation, and whether the state of Utah has, in a clinical sense, beef with math. Harvard constitutional law professor Dr. Miriam Chowdery called the charges "historically unprecedented" and then quietly placed a bet on them being thrown out by April.
Sources inside the Utah legislature say a new bill is being drafted that would make it a misdemeanor to be more than 80% confident about anything, with exceptions carved out for weather forecasts, basketball predictions, and "the part where your wife said she wasn't mad but she was definitely mad." The bill is expected to pass with 91% probability, according to Kalshi, who have already opened the market and are accepting deposits.
